Feb 14, 2023

2022/23 Brazil Soybeans 17% Harvested vs. 24% Last Year

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

Rainfall last week in Brazil was more concentrated in south-central Brazil with lighter amounts in places like eastern Mato Grosso. Several days of sunshine allowed for a rapid soybean harvesting especially in Mato Grosso. The forecast for this week is calling for continued chances of rain in north-central Brazil. In the southernmost state of Rio Grande do Sul, last week was hot and dry, but there are increased chances of rain in the state later this week.

The Brazilian soybean estimate was left unchanged again this week. Soybean yields in Mato Grosso are good and they will probably compensate for most of the losses expected in southern Brazil. Given the current forecast, there is a possibility that my Brazilian soybean estimate might creep a little higher by 1-2 million tons before it is all said and done. The final production number will be determined by how much rainfall they receive in Rio Grande do Sul over the next month.

The Brazilian soybeans were 17% harvested as of late last week compared to 24% last year according to AgRural. This represents an advance of 8% for the week. The state of Mato Grosso propelled the advance with 44% of the soybeans harvested.

Mato Grosso - The soybeans in Mato Grosso were 44.1% harvested as of late last week compared to 60.4% last year and 44.5% average. This represented an advance of 20% for the week, which is an extremely good harvest week. Dryer weather in central and eastern Mato Grosso encouraged rapid harvest progress. The most advanced harvest pace is in the mid-north region where 51% of the soybeans have been harvested. The slowest harvest pace is in northeastern Mato Gross where 33% of the soybeans have been harvested.

The Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (Imea) is now estimating the statewide soybean yield at 60.43 sacks per hectare (54 bu/ac), which would be a new record and up 3.3% from their last estimate. They attribute the increase to the generous rains during December and January, but they also cautioned that the continued wetness could result in high moisture grain and potentially damaged grain.

The graph below from the Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (Imea) shows the 2022/23 soybean harvest progress in Mato Grosso (red line). As you can see, farmers made good harvest progress last week.


Parana - The soybeans in Parana are approximately 5% harvested. The start of the harvest has been slow due to delayed planting last fall and recent wet weather. Deral estimated that the soybeans are 3% in vegetative development, 11% flowering, 54% filling pods, and 27% maturing. The soybeans are rated 4% poor, 15% average, and 81% good. Harvesting is expected to accelerate as the rainfall becomes lighter and more soybeans reach harvest maturity.

Goias - The soybeans in Goias were approximately 18% harvested as of late last week. Persistent wet weather has slowed the early soybean harvest in the state.

Mato Grosso do Sul - Farmers in the state had harvested 7% of their soybeans as of late last week, which is approximately 7% behind last year. Nearly all the soybeans in the state are in their reproductive phase and the soybeans are rated 93% in good condition. Aprosoja/MS is estimating the statewide soybean yield at 53.4 sacks per hectare (47.7 bu/ac).

Conab increased their 2022/23 Brazil soybean estimate 0.17 million tons last week to 152.82 million tons. The USDA left their 2022/23 Brazil soybean estimate unchanged last week at 153.0 million.