Feb 15, 2023
Early Planted Soybeans in Argentina Entering Critical Phase
Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.
After a slight improvement in conditions over the last several weeks, the weather once again turned problematic last week across central Argentina and now the soybeans are entering their critical reproductive phase.
Weather in Argentina during the last week of January and the first week of February was the best of the growing season, but that is now behind us and last week was hot and dry again in central Argentina. Over the weekend, there were rains across southern Buenos Aires and Cordoba with temperatures in the low 100's °F. The forecast for this week is calling for additional chances of rain in Cordoba and Buenos Aires with a dryer pattern returning next week.
The Argentina 2022/23 soybean estimate was lowered 2.0 million tons this week to 36.0 million due to the ongoing adverse weather especially in Santa Fe, Entre Rios, and northern Buenos Aires. In these areas, the soybean plant population is below average, the plants are short in height, flower abortion is being reported, and the crop is under oblivious moisture stress.
If the region received heavy rains immediately and then repeated rains over the next month, the soybean crop could recuperate somewhat, but that does not appear to be in the forecast. On the other hand, if the weather in Argentina continues hot and dry, the soybean estimate could decline even further.
The early planted soybeans are 54% setting pods and filling pods and 0.1% mature. The later planted soybeans are approximately 20% flowering. The soybeans in Argentina were rated 48% poor/very poor, 39% fair, and 13% good/excellent. The good/excellent percentage was up 1 point from the prior week, but the poor/very poor percentage was up 2 points from the prior week.
The soil moisture for the soybeans was rated 61% short/very short and 39% favorable/optimum. The favorable/optimum percentage is down 8 points from the prior week.
Below is the soybean condition rating in Argentina from the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange for February 9, 2023.
2022/23 Argentina Soybean Ratings*
| Condition | Soil Moisture | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poor/V. Poor % | Good/Excellent % | Short/V Short | Favorable/Optimum | |
| Dec. 7, 2022 | 35 (1) | 11 (78) | 34 (7) | 66 (91) |
| Dec. 15, 2022 | 20 (1) | 19 (85) | 32 (9) | 68 (90) |
| Dec. 22, 2022 | 25 (4) | 12 (73) | 42 (18) | 58 (82) |
| Dec. 29, 2022 | 28 (8) | 10 (57) | 44 (40) | 56 (70) |
| Jan. 5, 2023 | 38 (13) | 8 (50) | 43 (41) | 57 (59) |
| Jan. 12, 2023 | 56 (29) | 4 (33) | 66 (60) | 34 (40) |
| Jan. 19, 2023 | 60 (56) | 3 (29) | 70 (52) | 30 (47) |
| Jan. 26, 2023 | 54 (22) | 7 (36) | 63 (36) | 37 (64) |
| Feb. 2, 2023 | 46 (20) | 12 (38) | 53 (36) | 47 (64) |
| Feb. 9, 2023 | 48 (19) | 13 (40) | 61 (33) | 39 (67) |
*Source: Buenos Aires Grain Exchange – Crop Condition & Development Stages