Feb 22, 2023

2022/23 Brazil Soybeans 25% Harvested, Slowest in Southern Brazil

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

Rainfall amounts were a little lighter last week in north-central Brazil allowing for good harvest progress in Mato Grosso. The weather last week was wet in south-central Brazil, which continued to slow the initial soybean harvest in Parana and southern Mato Grosso do Sul. The forecast for this week is calling for heavier rains in northern Brazil and lighter rains in southern Brazil.

The 2022/23 Brazil soybean estimate was left unchanged again this week at 151.0 million tons. The soybean yields in central and north/northeastern Brazil are going to be very good and the question is will they be good enough to compensate for what is expected to be a very disappointing crop in Rio Grande do Sul. I do not think they will completely compensate for lower yields in southern Brazil and many analysts in Brazil agree.

In fact, AgRural lowered their soybean estimate last week by 2.1 million tons to 150.9 million. Some of the other higher estimates in Brazil have been trimmed as well. The final production estimate will depend on what happens in Rio Grande do Sul over the next month. If the rainfall in the state improves, then the estimates may stabilize. If the rainfall in the state remains scant, then the estimates may decline a little further.

For example, Conab is estimating that Rio Grande do Sul will produce 18.9 million tons of soybeans, while the Aprosoja-RS is estimating that the state will produce 12.6 million tons, which is a difference of over 6 million tons. AgRural is estimating that Rio Grande do Sul will produce 16.1 million tons. Conab is estimating that Brazil will produce 152.8 million tons of soybeans in 2022/23.

The Brazilian soybeans were 25% harvested as of late last week compared to 33% last year according to AgRural. This represents an advance of 8% for the week. The harvest is most advanced in Mato Grosso where 60% of the soybeans have been harvested

Mato Grosso - The soybeans in Mato Grosso were 60% harvested as of late last week compared to 67.7% last year and 57.8% average according to the Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (Imea). This represents an advance of 15.9% for the week. The most advanced harvest is in the northern part of the state where 74% of the soybeans have been harvested. The slowest harvest is in the northeastern part of the state where 44% have been harvested.

The 2022/23 soybean acreage in Mato Grosso increased 3% to 11.8 million hectares (29.1 million acres) and the production is expected to increase 5% to 42.8 million tons. Farmers in the state have sold 45% of their anticipated 2022/23 soybean production compared to 56% last year and 51% average. This represents an advance of 4.4% for the month. Farmers are slow sellers as they wait for improved prices. The average selling price last month was R$ 136 per sack (approximately $11.90 per bushel).

The graph below from the Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (Imea) shows the 2022/23 soybean harvest progress in Mato Grosso (red line).


Parana - The soybean harvest in Parana was 7% as of earlier last week according to Deral. This represented an advance of 5% for the week. The soybeans were 1% in vegetative development, 8% flowering, 56% filling pods, and 35% mature. The soybeans were rated 3% poor, 13% average, and 84% good.

Rio Grande do Sul - The State Cooperative Federation of Rio Grande do Sul is expecting soybean losses in the range of 43% compared to a loss estimate of 16% in January. They originally anticipated a soybean production of 22 million tons and that is now down to 12.5 million tons.