Mar 01, 2023

2022/23 Brazil Soybeans 33% Harvested vs. 43% Last Year

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

February weather in Brazil was wetter than normal in the south-central states of Parana, Mato Grosso do Sul, Sao Paulo, and southern Goias. February weather was somewhat dryer than normal in parts of Mato Grosso, northern Goias, and Tocantins. Rainfall last week in Brazil was greater in the south-central areas especially in Parana and southern Mato Grosso do Sul and it looks like that is where the heaviest rains will be again this week.

Yields in Mato Grosso are going to set a record while yields in Rio Grande do Sul are going to be very disappointing. The good yields in central Brazil are going to compensate for much of the losses in southern Brazil, but probably not all the losses.

The final soybean production estimate will depend on what happens in Rio Grande do Sul. If the state receives good rains from this point forward, the Brazilian estimate might increase 1-2 million tons. If the rainfall is disappointing in the state, the Brazilian estimate might decline 1-2 million tons.

The soybean harvest in Brazil was 33% complete as of late last week compared to 43% last year according to AgRural. This represents an advance of 8% for the week. Dryer weather in Mato Grosso allowed farmers to make good progress, while wet weather in Parana and Mato Grosso do Sul continued to keep farmers out of the field.

Mato Grosso - Farmers in Mato Grosso made good harvest progress last week and the soybeans were 76.2% harvested as of late last week compared to 78.1% last year and 70.6% average. This represents an advance of 16% for the week. The most advanced harvest is in the mid-north region where 88% of the soybeans have been harvested. The slowest pace is in the northeast where 57% of the soybeans have been harvested.

The recent weather in Mato Grosso has turned dryer especially in the northern regions of the state. The forecast does not look quite as wet either, so harvesting in the state should proceed normally. Soybean harvesting is now slightly ahead of average and it should continue that way this week.

The graph below from the Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (Imea) shows the 2022/23 soybean harvest progress in Mato Grosso (red line).


Rio Grande do Sul - The 2022/23 soybean planting in the state is now complete (finally). Recent rainfall has allowed farmers in the state to plant the last remaining 1% of their soybeans. Recent rains have been helpful especially for the later planted soybeans that had not entered their critical reproductive phase, but more rainfall will be needed according to Emater. The driest part of the state continues to be the western and southwestern regions.

In areas of the state where the rainfall exceeded about 1.5 inches, the soybeans should be able to recuperate somewhat, but the crop remains very irregular between municipalities and even with a municipality.