Mar 13, 2023

In March Report Conab Lowers Soy 1.47 mt, Increases Corn 0.93 mt

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

Soybeans - In their March Crop Report, Conab lowered their 2022/23 Brazilian soybean estimate by 1.47 million tons to 151.41 million. The soybean acreage was increased 190,000 hectares in March to 43.52 million (107.4 million acres). The increased acreage is a little hard to explain because the soybean acreage declined 120,000 hectares in February compared to January.

The soybean yield is now estimated at 3,479 kg/ha (51.8 bu/ac), which is down 0.7 bu/ac compared to February. Conab cited losses in Rio Grande do Sul that were not completely compensated for by gains in Sao Paulo, Goias, and Mato Grosso do Sul.

Corn - In their March Crop Report, Conab increased the 2022/23 Brazilian corn production by 930,000 tons to 124.67 million. The first corn crop was increased 290,000 tons to 26.75 million and the safrinha crop was increased 640,000 tons to 95.60 million.

The acreage of the first corn crop was lowered 20,000 hectares to 4.37 million (10.7 million acres) with a yield of 6,114 kg/ha (97.2 bu/ac), which was up 1.5 bu/ac from last month. The safrinha acreage was increased 20,000 hectares to 16.99 million (41.9 million acres) with a yield of 5,625 kg/ha (89.4 bu/ac), which was up 0.4 bu/ac from last month. The safrinha corn acreage is forecasted to increase 3.8% compared to last year.

Conab sent mixed messages concerning the safrinha corn crop. While they increased the acreage and the yield, they also forecasted below normal precipitation for Parana and southern Mato Grosso do Sul for the period March-April-May (see map). That is the area where the safrinha corn will be planted the latest and that is also the area where there could be a frost before the corn matures.

Below is the precipitation forecast for March-April-May from the Brazilian National Weather Service (Inmet).