Mar 15, 2023
2022/23 Argentina Corn Estimates Continue to Decline
Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.
High temperatures over the last 10-15 days have also impacted the corn crop as well. It impacted the early planted corn as it was filling grain and the later planted corn as it approached pollination. The early planted corn is approximately 45% mature and maybe 2% harvested. The later planted corn is pollinating with approximately 18% filling grain.
The most impacted corn is in Santa Fe, Entre Rios, and Cordoba. Approximately 2-3% of the early planted corn has been harvested with yields in the range of 3,500 kg/ha (55.6 bu/ac). Additionally, there will be increased abandonment for the corn as well. I don't think it will be as high as the soybeans, which is estimated at 2.6 million hectares or more (about 15-16% of planted). Corn abandonment might be in the range of 500-7000,000 hectares or 7-10% of planted.
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange lowered their 2022/23 Argentina corn estimate 3.5 million tons last week to 37.5 million. The Rosario Exchange lowered their corn estimate 7.5 million tons to 35.0 million. In the March WASDE Report, the USDA lowered the 2022/23 Argentina corn estimate 7.0 million tons to 40.0 million.
The 2022/23 corn in Argentina was rated 59% poor/very poor, 36% fair, and 5% good/excellent as of late last week. The good/excellent percentage is down 1 point from the prior week. The soil moisture for the corn was rated 65% short/very short and 35% favorable/optimum. The favorable/optimum percentage is down 2 points from the prior week.
Below is the corn condition rating in Argentina from the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange for March 9, 2023.
2022/23 Argentina Corn Ratings*
| Condition | Soil Moisture | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poor/V. Poor % | Good/Excellent % | Short/V Short | Favorable/Optimum | |
| Feb. 2, 2023 | 32 (28) | 22 (28) | 44 (27) | 56 (72) |
| Feb. 9, 2023 | 34 (25) | 20 (28) | 46 (24) | 54 (76) |
| Feb. 16, 2023 | 45 (26) | 11 (20) | 55 (28) | 45 (71) |
| Feb. 23, 2023 | 51 (26) | 9 (22) | 60 (32) | 40 (68) |
| Mar. 2, 2023 | 56 (24) | 6 (22) | 63 (27) | 37 (72) |
| Mar. 9, 2023 | 59 (22) | 5 (27) | 65 (21) | 35 (78) |
*Source: Buenos Aires Grain Exchange – Crop Condition & Development Stages