Mar 22, 2023

2022/23 Brazil Safrinha Corn 91% Planted vs. 97% Last Year

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

The 2022/23 Brazil safrinha corn was 91% planted as of late last week compared to 97% last year according to AgRural. This represented an advance of 10% for the week. Dryer weather especially in Parana allowed for rapid safrinha corn planting.

The next two months will determine the potential for the safrinha corn crop in Brazil as well as domestic corn prices and potential Brazilian corn exports in 2023. The start of the safrinha corn growing season in Mato Grosso has been somewhat slow, but there is ample moisture for early crop development.

That cannot be said for the safrinha corn in Parana, southern Mato Grosso do Sul, Minas Gerais, and Sao Paulo where the planting has been very delayed and there is still a significant percentage of the crop that remains to be planted. Collectively, these four states have approximately 30% Brazil's safrinha corn acreage.

In the table below are the top six safrinha corn producing states in Brazil from Conab's March Crop Report. The total 2022/23 safrinha corn acreage is estimated at 16.99 million hectares (41.9 million acres) which is up 3.8% from last year. The total 2022/23 safrinha corn production is estimated at 95.60 million tons which is up 11.3% comparted to the 85.89 million tons produced last year. As you can see, Mato Grosso is forecasted to produce almost half of all the safrinha corn in Brazil.

Brazilian Safrinha Corn Production – 2022/23

StateAcreageYOY % ChangeProductionYOY % ChangeProduction
Mato Grosso 7.03 mha+8.4 44.67 mt +8.746.4%
Parana 2.62 mha -3.6 15.67 mt +16.6 15.2%
Goias1.70 mha -2.3 10.89 mt+37.8 11.8%
Mato Grosso do Sul2.21 mha +2.5 11.21 mt -8.5 11.6%
Minas Gerais 0.53 mha -4.4 2.85 mt +31.5 3.9%
Sao Paulo 0.58 mha +8.3 2.76 mt +18.8 2.8%

Mato Grosso - The safrinha corn in Mato Grosso was 97.9% planted as of late last week compared to 99.3% last year and 99.1% average. This represents an advance of 1.5% for the week. The Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (Imea) estimates that 80% of the safrinha corn in the state was planted within the ideal planting window. There has been ample rainfall since the corn has been planted with some areas of south-central Mato Grosso experiencing too much rain and localized flooding.

The graph below from the Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (Imea) shows the 2022/23 safrinha corn planting progress in Mato Grosso (red line).


Parana - The safrinha corn in Parana was 61% planted last week, which was up 24% for the week. Dryer weather last week allowed for rapid safrinha corn planting and the weather this week should continue beneficial.