Mar 28, 2023

2022/23 Brazil Safrinha Corn 96% Planted

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

Safrinha corn in Brazil was 96% planted as of late last week with only a few fields left to plant in isolated areas. In the northern areas, most of the corn was planted within the ideal planting window, while in the southern areas, a significant portion of the corn was planted after the ideal window had closed. It is the later planted corn that has the greater risk of lower yields.

Rainfall amounts in Brazil are declining especially in the east-central regions of Brazil. If this trend continues, it may signal an early end to the summer rainy season, which would have repercussions for any late planted safrinha corn.

Mato Grosso - The safrinha corn planting in Mato Grosso is 99% compared to 99.9% last year. Approximately 80% of the safrinha corn in Mato Grosso was planted within the ideal planting window which closed at the end of February. The weather thus far has been favorable for the early corn development, but rainfall amounts are starting to diminish which is not unusual for this time of the year.

The graph below from the Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (Imea) shows the 2022/23 safrinha corn planting progress in Mato Grosso (red line).


Parana - The safrinha corn planting in Parana was 77% earlier last week compared to 94% last year according to the Department of Rural Economics (Deral). This represents an advance of 16% for the week and it is the slowest safrinha planting since 2016. The corn is 33% germinating, 67% in vegetative development and is rated 1% average and 99% good.

In the municipalities of Cascavel and Toledo in western Parana, the ideal planting window for safrinha corn closed on February 28th, so some farmers in the region who did not get their corn planted within the ideal window, have opted to plant winter wheat instead of safrinha corn.

Minas Gerais - The farmers in Minas Gerais still have 20% of their soybeans left to harvest, which is putting their safrinha corn planting behind schedule. The president of Aprosoja/MG is advising farmers not to plant any more safrinha corn due to the risk of the summer rainy season ending before the corn is mature. He is recommending planting a cover crop and preparing for the 2023/24 planting season.

Agroconsult lowered their estimate of the Brazilian corn crop last week to 125.5 million tons compared to their 130.9 million ton estimate in January. They had anticipated an increase in the safrinha corn acreage, but they now think it will be unchanged.