May 03, 2023

2022/23 Brazil Safrinha Corn Currently in Good Condition

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

Rainfall in central Brazil has generally been beneficial for the safrinha corn development, but rainfall amounts started to diminish during the second half of April. The forecast going forward definitely looks dryer for central Brazil. It is a little too early to say for sure, but it is possible that there may not be any more heavy summer rains in central Brazil as the summer rainy season transitions to the dry season.

The safrinha corn yields in central Brazil will be good and if this is the end of the summer rainy season, it might only slightly trim the safrinha corn yields.

South central Brazil has received rains in recent weeks to the benefit of the safrinha corn. The concern for the safrinha corn going forward is the potential for frost. There were more frosts late last week in the higher elevations of Santa Catarina. It is highly unusual to have two frost episodes in southern Brazil before the end of April. Farmers are concerned this may be a precursor of things to come and any frost in the safrinha corn area before about mid-June would negatively impact the crop.

Mato Grosso - The safrinha corn in Mato Grosso is in the process of filling grain. The corn is generally rated in good condition with a good yield potential. The weather in Mato Grosso is starting to turn dryer, but the safrinha corn is far enough along in its development that dry weather during May might only trim some of the corn yields. The safrinha corn will be harvested in June and July and farmers in the state are concerned about the lack of storage space and the declining corn price. It is likely we will see piles of corn stored outside in the coming months.

Parana - As of earlier last week, the safrinha corn in Parana was 75% in vegetative development, 18% pollinating, 7% filling grain and the crop was rated 5% average and 95% good according to the Department of Rural Economics (Deral).

In the municipality of Itambe in northern Parana, the safrinha corn was planted 30 days later than normal due to the delayed soybean harvest. Most of the corn was planted in March instead of February. The delayed planting is expected to result in lower yields in the range of 80 to 90 sacks per hectare (76 to 86 bu/ac) instead of the more typical yields of 110 to 120 sacks per hectare (105 to 114 bu/ac).

The corn in the municipality is rated 30% poor, 20% average, and 50% good/excellent. The biggest concern for the crop is the possibility of frost before about mid-June.