May 10, 2023

2022/23 Brazil Safrinha Corn - Dryer Central, Wetter South

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

Weather last week was a mixed bag for the safrinha corn. It has turned dryer in central Brazil and there is not much rain in the forecast. In contrast, there were showers in western Parana and southern Mato Grosso do Sul last week with more rain in the forecast. I would say on balance, it was a positive week for the safrinha corn.

The main thing to watch for going forward is the possibility of a frost in the safrinha corn areas of southern Brazil. Brazilian metrologists are forecasting the potential for frosts later this week in the higher elevations of southern Brazil. It is not forecasted to hit the safrinha corn, but this is the third frost in southern Brazil in the last four weeks. If this pattern persists, at some point, the safrinha corn may run out of luck and be impacted by a future frost.

Mato Grosso - The Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (Imea) is now estimating the safrinha corn yield in the state at 105.6 sacks per hectare (100.7 bu/ac), which is up 1.28% compared to a month earlier. The 2022/23 statewide corn production is now estimated at 47 million tons. The increase was due to the good rainfall received in April. The weather has since turned dryer, but the crop is far enough along that continued dryness might only trim the corn yields.

Parana - The safrinha corn in Parana was 63% in vegetative development, 26% pollinating, 11% filling grain, and rated 8% average and 92% good as of earlier last week. Rainfall last week benefited the safrinha corn in the state, but the crop will not be safe from frost until at least mid-June.

Rio Grande do Sul - Farmers in the state had harvested 84% of the corn crop as of late last week compared to 84% last year and 81% average according to Emater. Emater left their corn production estimate unchanged at 3.6 million tons, which is 41% lower than the 6.1 million tons initially expected.