May 31, 2023
2022/23 Brazil Safrinha Corn 0.8% Harvested vs. 1.2% Last Year
Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.
The early safrinha corn harvest has started with 0.8% of the safrinha corn harvested in south-central Brazil compared to 1.2% last year according to AgRural.
Over the weekend, areas of safrinha corn in the states of Parana, Mato Grosso do Sul, and Sao Paulo received 1-2 inches of rainfall, which ended an extended period of dry weather. Central Brazil only received isolated rain over the weekend and they may receive some scattered showers later this week. The moisture will benefit the later developing safrinha corn, but the crop is still vulnerable to potential frost should one occur before the end of June.
The recent heavier than expected rainfall was the reason I increased the Brazilian corn estimate.
Mato Grosso - The safrinha corn in Mato Grosso was 0.49% harvested as of late last week compared to 2.3% last year and 0.54% average according to the Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (Imea). The average spot price for corn in Mato Grosso last week was R$ 45.44 per sack (approximately $4.15 per bushel).
Mato Grosso farmers are concerned about the low corn prices for the 2023/24 growing season. Imea estimates that the average cost of production for safrinha corn is R$ 5,114 per hectare, or approximately $415 per acre. In order to break even with an average corn yield, the price would need to be R$ 48.42 per sack (approximately $4.40 per bushel). To break even or make a small profit, the corn yield would need to be 108.1 sacks per hectare (103 bu/ac).
Below is the safrinha corn harvest progress for Mato Grosso (red line) from Imea.
Parana - The Department of Rural Economics (Deral) reported that farmers in Parana did not plant as much safrinha corn as intended due to the delayed soybean harvest. Deral estimates that the safrinha corn acreage declined 11% this year, but production will increase 6% due to improved yields. Some farmers opted for wheat instead of safrinha corn and the wheat acreage is expected to increase 13% this year to 1.38 million hectares. The wheat in Parana was 58% planted as of late last week.