Jun 20, 2023

2022/23 Brazil Corn Estimate Increased 1.0 mt to 130.0 Million

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

The 2022/23 Brazil corn estimate was increased 1.0 million tons this week to 130.0 million and I have a neutral to slightly higher bias going forward. The corn estimate was increased because recent rains will probably help some of the later planted safrinha corn.

In their June Crop Report, Conab increased the 2022/23 Brazil soybean estimate 0.18 million tons to 125.71 million. Conab is now has one of the lowest estimates for the 2022/23 Brazilian corn production.

Surprising widespread 2-3-4-inch rains fell across south-central Brazil last week which were beneficial for the late planted safrinha corn. The month of May was very dry across Brazil and it looked like the dry season was underway, but the weather turned much wetter during June.

In fact, southern Brazil was battered by an extra-tropical cyclone late last week. These types of storms have cold air at their core and are associated with cold fronts. There was widespread flooding with multiple deaths in the coastal areas of Rio Grande do Sul, Santa Catarina, and Parana.

The 2022/23 safrinha corn was 4.7% harvested as of late last week compared to 11.4% last year and 9.8% average according to AgRural. This represented an advance of 2.5% for the week. Wet weather last week in Parana, Mato Grosso do Sul, and Goias slowed the corn harvest pace, but the moisture was beneficial for the late planted corn. The wet weather helped to prevent any frosts from occurring with the passage of the cold front.

Mato Grosso - The safrinha corn in Mato Grosso was 8.3% harvested as of late last week compared to 25.5% last year and 16.6% average. This represents an advance of 4.7% for the week. The most advanced harvest is in northern Mato Grosso where 18% of the corn has been harvested.

Farmers in Mato Grosso had sold 44.6% of their anticipated safrinha corn production by the end of May, which is up 6% compared to April according to the Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics. The safrinha corn in the state is 8.3% harvested and many farmers will be forced to sell their corn due to a lack of storage space. For the 2023/24 safrinha corn production, farmers had sold 3.7% by the end of May, which was up 0.6% compared to April.

The average price of corn in Mato Grosso during May was R$ 38.45 per sack (approximately $3.50 per bushel), which was down 21% compared to April. The average price during May for the 2023/24 corn crop was R$ 32.78 per sack or approximately $3.00 per bushel, which is down 21% from April.

Below is the 2022/23 safrinha corn harvest pace in Mato Grosso (red line) from the Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics.


Parana - The safrinha corn in Parana was less than 1% harvested as of earlier last week. The harvest pace was slowed last week due to wet weather. As of earlier last week, the safrinha corn was 1% in vegetative development, 21% pollinating, 69% filling grain, and 9% mature. The corn was rated 2% poor, 14% average, and 84% good according to the Department of Rural Economics (Deral).