Jun 28, 2023

2023 U.S. Corn Yield Lowered 2.0 Bushels to 175.0 Bu/Ac

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

The 2023 U.S. corn yield was lowered 2.0 bushels this week to 175.0 bu/ac and I have a lower bias going forward.

The percentage of the corn rated good/excellent declined 5% last week to 50%. The corn is 4% silking compared to 4% last year and 4% average.

Rainfall over the weekend favored the northern Plains and the northern and eastern Midwest. The heaviest rainfall occurred in South Dakota and southern and eastern North Dakota. Rainfall in the Midwest overperformed somewhat in northern Iowa and northern Illinois but underperformed in southern Illinois and Missouri.

The Drought Monitor last Thursday indicated that 64% of the corn acreage was in drought, but the lack of extreme heat thus far has helped to stretch out the limited soil moisture reserves.

The corn was planted earlier than normal, but the development has been slowed by dry weather. The nationwide pollination is expected to hit 50% on July 14-15, which is slightly ahead of average. The earlier developing corn is now setting the size of the ear and if the plant is under moisture stress, it will set a smaller ear. The later planted corn will start setting the ear size in 1-2 weeks.

On Friday, June 30th, the USDA will release the June Planted Report. They usually assume that 91.2% of the corn will be harvested for gain, but that might be a little overly optimistic this year. There may be some increased abandonment this year and dairy farmers may have to harvest additional acres of corn this year to fill their silos. Dairy farmers usually plant more corn than needed to fill their silos with the excess corn harvested for grain. In dry years such as this year, the corn plant may be smaller than normal, so the farmer would need to harvest more acres to get the desired volume of silage to fill their silos, thus leaving less corn to be harvested for grain.

The current corn planted acreage is estimated at 91.5 million acres with a harvested acreage of 83.5 million acres. After the June Planted Report is issued, if any acreage adjustments are warranted, they will be reflected in next week's report.