Jul 05, 2023

2023 U.S. Corn Yield Unchanged at 175.0 bu/ac

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

The 2023 U.S. corn yield was left unchanged this week at 175.0 bu/ac and I have a neutral bias going forward.

Rainfall over the weekend favored the south-central and eastern Midwest. They helped to ease the dryness in southern Iowa, northern Illinois, and Indiana. Central and southern Illinois received rain last week and then northern Illinois received rain over the weekend. The weekend rains in northern Illinois over-performed compared to the forecast.

The forecast for this week is calling for rain in the northern Plains and northwestern Corn Belt with seasonal temperatures. Rainfall over the next 10 days should further ease dryness concerns in the Corn Belt. The rainfall last week coupled with the weekend rains, were good enough for me to keep the corn yield unchanged at 175.0 bu/ac.

The percentage of the corn rated good/excellent improved 1% last week to 51%. The corn is now 8% silking compared to 7% last year and 9% average. The U.S. corn crop should reach 50% pollination probably late next week, so the recent rains have been very beneficial for the developing corn.

In the June Planted Report, the 2023 U.S. corn planted acreage was estimated at 94.09 million acres, up 5.52 million compared to 2022. This represents the third highest planted acreage since 1944. The corn harvested acreage is estimated at 86.32 million acres or 91.7% of planted. The percentage harvested is slightly more than the 91.4% that had been used in the WASDE reports. I think that is slightly optimistic because there may be some increased abandonment this year and some additional corn acres harvested for silage. I am going to adopt the USDA's corn planted acreage and the corn harvested acreage for now, but the harvested acreage may be trimmed slightly in the future.

The June Planted corn acreage is up 2.1 million acres from the March Prospective Plantings Report. As you can see on the table below, 11 of the 18 major states registered an increase in corn acreage from March to June. The good planting conditions earlier in the spring favored more corn acres.

Change in Corn Acreage – March 31 to June 30, 2023

Texas +450,000
Iowa +300,000
South Dakota+300,000
North Dakota+150,000
Ohio +50,000
Tennessee +40,000
North Carolina+30,000
Indiana 0
Michigan 0
Nebraska 0
Kentucky -50,000
Colorado -150,000