Jul 13, 2023

2023 U.S. Corn Yield Unchanged at 175.0 bu/ac

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

The 2023 U.S. corn yield was left unchanged this week at 175.0 bu/ac and I have a neutral bias going forward. The 2023 U.S. corn production is estimated at 15.10 billion bushels.

Recent rainfall has improved across much of the Midwest, especially the east-central Midwest. For example, Chicago's O'Hare airport has received more rain during the first 8 days of July than May and June combined. O'Hare has recorded 4.4 inches thus far in July compared to 0.7 inches in May and 2.3 inches in June.

While rainfall has improved across much of the Midwest, dryness remains a concern across northern and northwestern areas of the Corn Belt. The forecast is calling for beneficial rainfall across most of the Midwest with less rainfall in the northern and northwestern areas. Temperatures are forecasted to be seasonal or slightly below seasonal which will help to extend soil moisture supplies.

The percentage of the corn crop rated good/excellent improved 4% last week to 55%. Even with the improved rating, the 2023 U.S. corn crop is one of lowest rated crops since the rating system started. The U.S. corn crop is 22% silking compared to 14% last year and 21% average. The corn is 3% in the dough stage compared to 2% last year and 2% average.

I continue to use the USDA's June corn planted acreage of 94.0 million acres and the harvested acreage of 86.3 million acres, but there is a possibility that the final harvested acreage may be slightly lower than 86.3 million acres.

In the July WASDE Report, the USDA lowered their U.S. corn yield 4 bu/ac from 181.5 bu/ac to 177.5 bu/ac. They cited adverse dry conditions during June for the downward revision but added that "timely rainfall and cooler than normal temperatures for some of the driest parts of the Corn Belt during early July is expected to moderate the impact of June weather."