Jul 18, 2023

2022/23 Brazil Corn Estimate Unchanged at 132.0 Million Tons

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

The 2022/23 Brazil corn estimate was left unchanged this week at 132.0 million tons and I have a neutral bis going forward.

The safrinha corn in Brazil was 36% harvested as of late last week compared to 53% last year according to AgRural. This represents an advance of 9% for the week. Mato Grosso leads the way with 68% harvested. Recent wet weather slowed the harvest in Parana and Mato Grosso do Sul, but both states avoided a frost over the weekend.

Mato Grosso - The safrinha corn in Mato Grosso was 68.2% harvested as of late last week compared to 85.2% last year and 73% average. This represents an advance of 18.7% for the week. The most advanced harvest pace is in the mid-north region where 83% of the corn has been harvested.

The state is forecasted to produce a record safrinha corn crop due to increased acreage and high yields. The Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (Imea) is estimating that farmers planted 7.4 million hectares of safrinha corn (18.2 million acres) and the corn yield will be 112 sacks per hectare (106.8 bu/ac), which is up 10% compared to last year. The result is a record production of approximately 50 million tons.

While the corn yields in Mato Grosso are good, the prices are not. The combination of record production and a lack of storage space has pressured corn prices in the state. The current corn price in Mato Grosso is in the range of R$ 32.00 to R$ 35.00 per sack (approximately $2.96 to $3.24 per bushel), whereas Imea estimates the cost of producing the 2022/23 crop was R$ 43.00 per sack (approximately $3.98 per bushel). Below is the safrinha corn harvest progress (red line) in the state of Mato Grosso from Imea.


Parana - Farmers in Parana had harvested 3% of their safrinha corn as of earlier last week according to the Department of Rural Economics (Deral). Approximately 45% of the corn is maturing and the crop is rated 3% poor, 15% average, and 82% good. The start of the harvest has been slow due to wet conditions and high grain moisture.

In the municipality of Guaira in northwestern Parana, the safrinha corn is 20% harvested with many farmers holding off harvest due to high grain moisture. The corn is maturing later than normal due to wet weather that delayed the soybean harvest and subsequently the safrinha corn planting.

Yields thus far are good and the president of the Rural Union of Guaira is expecting yields in the range of 125 to 130 sacks per hectare (119 to 124 bu/ac). Few farmers forward contracted their anticipated corn production and they are now disappointed with corn prices in the range of R$ 44.00 per sack (approximately $4.00 per bushel).

In their July Report, Conab increased the 2022/23 Brazil corn estimate by 2.05 million tons to 127.76 million. The primary reason for the increase was a 1.6 bu/ac increase in the safrinha corn yield. In the July WASDE Report, the USDA increased the 2022/23 Brazil corn estimate 1.0 million tons to 133.0 million.