Jul 19, 2023

2023 U.S. Corn Yield Unchanged at 175.0 Bu/Ac

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

The 2022/23 U.S. corn yield was left unchanged this week at 175.0 bu/ac and I have a neutral to lower bias going forward.

The rainfall last week and over the weekend favored Nebraska, Iowa, and Illinois. Rainfall amounts were generally good and the temperatures were seasonal or below seasonal. The areas that missed out somewhat were parts of northern Iowa, Minnesota, the Dakotas, and parts of Wisconsin. These are the areas where additional moisture will be needed the most.

Rain this week is expected to favor the southern Midwest with dry weather expected in the north-central Midwest. Temperatures this week across the Corn Belt are forecasted to be cooler than normal. Below normal rainfall is expected across most of the Corn Belt in the 6-10 day period with warming temperatures toward the end of the period.

Rainfall during the first half of July has helped the corn as it enters pollination, but dry pockets persist especially in the northern and western areas. The corn yield was left unchanged this week at 175.0 bu/ac with a neutral to lower bias going forward. The yield estimate could easily move lower especially if the rainfall starts to diminish and/or the temperatures heat up. In the dryer areas, the subsoil moisture is not sufficient to meet the increased water requirements of the crop, so timely rainfall will be necessary to maintain current yield projections.

The percentage of the corn rated good/excellent improved 2% to 57%. This marks three weeks in a row of improvement. The improved conditions were found generally across the Midwest.

U.S. corn crop is 47% silking compared to 34% last year and 43% average. The corn is 7% dough compared to 5% last year and 6% average.

In the July WASDE Report, the USDA lowered the 2023 U.S. corn yield 4.0 bushels to 177.5 bu/ac. They cited dry weather during June as the reason for the lower yield but cautioned that improved weather in early July could mitigate some of the damage.