Jul 20, 2023

Patria Agronegocios Forecasts 0.48% Increase in Brazil Soy Acreage

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

The Brazilian consulting firm Patria Agronegocios released their first estimate of the 2023/24 growing season in Brazil and they expect Brazilian farmers to increase their soybean acreage 0.48% to 44.48 million hectares (109.8 million acres). This would be the smallest increase in acreage in the last 17 years. Low soybean prices is the reason cited for the small increased acreage.

Brazil's 2023/24 soybean production is projected at 155.81 million tons or 1.6% more than their estimate of 153.36 million tons for 2022/23. The USDA is currently estimating Brazil's 2023/24 soybean production at 163.0 million tons.

Nationwide soybean yields in 2023/24 are expected to increase 1.1% to 58.4 sacks per hectare (52.2 bu/ac). In northeastern Brazil, the soybean yield is expected to increase 5% to 63.9 sacks per hectare (57.1 bu/ac), while soybean yields in southern Brazil are expected to decline 4.9% to 45.9 sacks per hectare (41.0 bu/ac).

Patria Agronegocios indicated that their production estimate considered the possibility of a strong El Nino during Brazil's growing season. They anticipate that El Nino will result in abundant rainfall in central Brazil during mid-September when soybean planting gets underway. They are anticipating an increased risk of below normal rainfall in November-December-January in west-central Brazil as well as northeastern and northern Brazil. If verified, the below normal rainfall could impact soybeans during the critical pod filling period.

Brazilian farmers will start planting their soybeans in mid-September with the end of the "soybean free" period. The planting window for soybeans has been shortened to 100 days for the 2023/24 growing season. The window has been shortened to help control the impact of soybean rust disease.