Jul 21, 2023

Brazil's Grain Production Forecasted to Increase 24% in Ten Years

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

The Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture, in conjunction with Embrapa, recently released the study "Agribusiness Projections - Brazil 2022/23 to 2032/33" in which they forecasted that Brazilian grain production, which includes mainly soybeans, corn, and cotton, could reach 390 million tons within ten years.

Grain production in Brazil is expected to increase 24.1% over the next ten years and reach 390 million tons during the 2032/33 growing season. This would represent an increase of 75.5 million tons over current production.

Grain acreage in Brazil is forecasted to expand from the current 77.5 million hectares (191.4 million acres) to 92.3 million hectares in 2032/33 (227.9 million acres). The addition of 14.7 million hectares of crop production (36.3 million acres) will result mainly from the conversion of degraded pastures to row crop production. The increased grain production will not only be the result of increased acreage, but also from higher productivity from existing areas.

Approximately 78% of the acreage expansion will be devoted to increased soybean production. Soybean production in 2032/33 is projected to hit 186.7 million tons or an increase of 20.6% compared to 2022/23. Soybean exports in 2032/33 are projected at 121.4 million tons or approximately 60% of world soybean exports.

Acreage devoted to corn production is expected to increase along with soybeans since approximately 75% of the corn in Brazil is planted as a second crop following soybeans. Corn production in 2032/33 is projected at 160 million tons or an increase of 27% compared to 2022/23. Exports and ethanol production are expected to stimulate corn production.

Cotton production is estimated to hit 3.6 million tons within ten years or an increase of 26.8%. The states of Mato Grosso and Bahia will account for approximately 90% of Brazil cotton production and the increased production will be the result of increased productivity due to improved genetics, improved agricultural practices, new technologies, and precision agriculture.

Brazil should account for 12.5% of world cotton production in 2030. The United States, Brazil, and India will be the principal cotton exporters in 2030.

In 2032, domestic consumption is expected to account for 33% of soybean production, 65% of corn production, and 43% of coffee production.

Meat production in Brazil (beef, pork, and poultry) is expected to increase 6.6 million tons to 36.2 million in 2032/33, or an increase of 22.4%. Poultry production is expected to increase 28.1% in ten years with pork production up 23.2% and beef production up 12.4%. Approximately 35.5% of Brazil's poultry production will be consumed domestically with 14.8% of pork consumed domestically.