Jul 27, 2023

2023 U.S. Soybean Yield Unchanged, Could Move Lower

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

The 2023 U.S. soybean yield was left unchanged this week at 50.5 bu/ac and I have a neutral to lower bias going forward.

The soybean yield was left unchanged this week because my yield estimate is already below the USDA and I thought it was a little too early to trim it some more. Soybeans can recuperate, but the calendar will turn to August next week and time is running out especially in the dryer areas where the soybean growth has been slow. If the rainfall does not improve quickly, there is a significant probability that the soybean yield will be lowered in the coming weeks.

Rainfall over the weekend favored the south-central and far northern Corn Belt as well as parts of the Delta. Rains are expected to be rather limited this week and favor the northern Midwest with dryer weather in the central and southern Midwest. Temperatures will be much warmer this week across the Midwest.

The condition of the 2023 U.S. soybean crop declined 1% last week to 54% rated good/excellent. The soybeans are 70% blooming compared to 62% last year and 66% average. The soybeans are 35% setting pods compared to 24% last year and 31% average.

U.S. soybeans are now entering their all-important pod filling period which will determine the eventual yield.