Aug 02, 2023

2023 U.S. Corn Yield Unchanged at 174.0 Bu/Ac, 15.01 Bil./Bushels

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

The 2023 U.S. corn yield was left unchanged this week at 174.0 bu/ac and I have a neutral to lower bias going forward.

Rainfall over the weekend favored the northern and eastern Corn Belt especially eastern Iowa, Wisconsin, northern Illinois, Michigan, Indiana, and Ohio. Weekend rains also fell in Nebraska and across the southern Corn Belt. Areas that were generally missed include Missouri, western Iowa, southwestern Minnesota, South Dakota, and North Dakota.

After last week's sizzling temperatures, which were the hottest of the summer thus far, the temperatures this week are going to be more seasonal. The forecast for this week is calling for better chances of rain in the far western and southern areas. Unfortunately, the forecast is calling for the least amount of rainfall this week in the areas that need it the most. The driest areas are now Missouri, western Iowa, southwestern Minnesota, South Dakota, and North Dakota.

Toward the end of last week, I anticipated that I would lower the corn yield again this week, but the weekend rains were good enough, and now the temperatures have moderated enough, that I decided to leave the corn yield unchanged. The corn development is a little ahead of normal, so a cooler and wetter August would be beneficial for the crop.

The condition of the 2023 U.S. corn crop declined 2% last week to 55% rated good/excellent. The 2023 U.S. corn is 84% silking compared to 77% last year and 82% average. The corn is 29% dough compared to 24% last year and 29% average.

A lot of the corn is in the blister stage, which starts about 10-12 days after silking. Severe stress can cause kernel abortion during the pre-blister and blister stages. This can result in tip-back where the last several inches of the ear can be devoid of kernels.

As the corn moves into the grain filling stage, the nighttime temperatures become more important. Corn likes cool temperatures at night so it can rest. It does not like elevated nighttime temperatures above 73-74-75°F because it results in what is called dark respiration where the plant must work harder maintaining itself. That can result in less energy devoted to grain fill and as a result, lower yields.