Aug 10, 2023

Imea Increases Mato Grosso Safrinha Corn Yield and Production

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

The Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics increased their yield and production estimates for the 2022/23 safrinha corn in the state. The statewide yield is now estimated at 113.52 sacks per hectare (108.3 bu/ac), which is up 0.75% compared to a month earlier and 11% higher than last year. Mato Grosso is now expected to produce 51.03 million tons of corn, which is about half of Brazil's total safrinha corn production.

Corn acreage in the state is estimated at 7.49 million hectares (18.5 million acres), which is up 4.8% compared to 2021/22. The acreage estimate is up 1% compared to their June estimate.

The good yields are attributed to beneficial weather during the growing season, especially in areas where the corn was planted after the ideal planting window had closed at the end of February. The late planted corn benefited from an extended summer rainy season. Normally, the summer rains end in the state about the first week of May, but this year, the rains extended until the end of May.

As of August 7, 2023, farmers in the state had sold 58.5% of their 2022/23 corn, which was up 5% from a month earlier but still significantly behind last year and average. Even though corn prices in the state are disappointing, some farmers were forced to sell their corn due to a lack of storage space. Numerous silos in the state are still occupied by the 2022/23 soybean crop.

The average corn price in the state during the month of July was R$ 34.40 per sack (approximately $3.25 per bushel), which was down 4.5% from June.

For many farmers in the state, the current corn price is only enough to about break even on their corn production, especially if they did not forward contract some of the corn earlier this year when prices were higher. If corn prices do not improve before the end of 2023, many farmers have indicated that they will reduce inputs for the 2023/24 crop or maybe even trim their safrinha corn acreage.