Aug 11, 2023

Brazil 2022/23 Corn Estimate Increased 2.2 mt to 129.96 Million

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

In their August Crop Report released on Thursday, August 10th, Conab increased the 2022/23 Brazil corn estimate 2.2 million tons to 129.9 million. The crop is now estimated at 16.8 million tons more than 2021/22 or an increase of 14.9%.

The increase was the result of larger acreage and higher yields for the safrinha corn crop. The safrinha corn acreage was increased 40,000 hectares to 17.10 million hectares (42.23 million acres). The safrinha corn yield is estimated at 5,856 kg/ha (93.1 bu/ac), which is up 1.7 bu/ac from the previous month. The safrinha corn production is now estimated at 100.18 million tons, which is up 2.14 million from last month.

Brazil's improved safrinha corn yields are attributed to beneficial weather during the growing season, especially in areas where the corn was planted after the ideal planting window had closed at the end of February. The late-planted corn benefited from an extended summer rainy season. Normally, the summer rains in central Brazil end about the first week of May, but this year, the rains extended until the end of May.

Safrinha corn production now represents 77% of Brazil's total corn production with the first corn crop representing 21% and the third corn crop representing 1.8%

Mato Grosso is the leading corn producing state in Brazil at 51.24 million tons (39.4% of the total), followed by Parana at 17.64 million (13.5% of the total), Mato Grosso do Sul at 12.24 (9.4% of the total), Goias at 12.10 million (9.3% of the total), and Minas Gerais at 7.99 million (6.1% of the total.

Conab increased their estimate of Brazil's 2023 corn exports to 50 million tons compared to 48 million in their July report.