Aug 16, 2023

2023 U.S. Soybean Yield Increased 0.5 Bushels to 51.0 bu/ac

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

The 2023 U.S. soybean yield was increased 0.5 bushels to 51.0 bu/ac and I have a neutral to slightly higher bias going forward. The U.S. soybean production was increased to 4.21 billion bushels.

In the August Crop Report, the USDA lowered the U.S. soybean yield a little more than I had expected, but the weather has improved since the survey was completed. Soybeans respond to improved conditions during August, so I increased the yield slightly, but the forecast is calling for hot and dry conditions in the 6-10 day period. The soybeans could withstand a short period of hot and dry weather, but if it persists through the end of August, it could hold down any further yield improvement.

The 2023 August Crop Report estimated the U.S. soybean yield at 50.9 bu/ac with a production of 4.21 billion bushels. The yield is 1.1 bushels below the July WASDE and their original trendline. The harvested acreage was unchanged from their June estimate at 82.69 million acres. Record high soybean yields are forecasted for Arkansas, Indiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, Ohio, and South Carolina.

Preliminary data from the Farm Services Administration indicate that the soybean prevent-plant acreage may end up less than last year, which is no surprise given good conditions during planting. The final U.S. soybean acreage may move a little higher in the months ahead. Therefore, a combination of slightly higher yields and increased acreage could eventually increase the U.S. soybean production.

Weather during the first half of August has been benign with rainfall and non-threatening temperatures. In the areas that received rainfall, it came in time to rejuvenate the soybeans allowing for new flowering and pod formation. For soybeans still suffering from dry conditions, the forecast for a return of hot and dry weather is not welcome news.

The rating of the 2023 U.S. soybean crop improved 5% and is now rated 59% good/excellent. The soybeans are 94% blooming compared to 92% last year and 92% average and the soybeans are 78% setting pods compared to 72% last year and 75% average.