Aug 17, 2023

2023 U.S. Corn Yield Increased 1.0 Bushel to 175.0 bu/ac

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

The 2023 U.S. corn yield was increased 1.0 bushel this week to 175.0 bu/ac and I have a neutral to slightly higher bias going forward. The U.S. corn production was increased to 15.10 billion bushels.

USDA lowered the corn yield a little more than I had expected in the August Crop Report, but conditions have improved since the survey was conducted. I think the U.S. corn yield could eventually move a little higher, but the long-range forecast looks worrisome with hot and dry weather forecasted.

The 2023 August Crop Report estimated the U.S. corn yield at 175.1 bu/ac with a total production of 15.11 billion bushels. The yield is 2.4 bushels below the July WASDE estimate and 6.4 bushels below their original trendline. The harvested acreage was unchanged from their June estimate of 86.32 million acres. A record high corn yield is forecasted for Indiana.

Preliminary data from the Farm Services Administration indicate that the corn prevent-plant acreage may end up less than last year, which is no surprise given good conditions during planting. The final U.S. corn acreage may move a little higher in the months ahead. Therefore, a combination of slightly higher yields and acreage could eventually boost the U.S. corn production.

Rainfall over the weekend favored the northern and southern locations. Rain this week is expected to favor the northern Midwest which will improve soil moisture in Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan. Cool temperatures this week will favor crop development. Hotter and dryer weather is expected across the Midwest in the 6-10 day period, which could lead to some crop stress, especially in the western areas.

The weather thus far during August has been beneficial for the majority of the Corn Belt except for parts of Wisconsin, Minnesota, North Dakota, and South Dakota. After a dry June and a hot July, the weather during the first half of August has been benign. The forecast is calling for beneficial weather this week but hotter and dryer weather next week.

The rating of the 2023 U.S. corn crop improved 2% and is now rated 59% good/excellent. The corn is 96% silking compared to 93% last year and 96% average. The corn is 65% dough compared to 60% last year and 63% average and the corn is 18% dented compared to 15% last year and 18% average.