Aug 23, 2023

2023 U.S. Corn Estimate Unchanged at 175.0 bu/ac, 15.1 bb

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

The 2023 U.S. corn estimate was left unchanged this week at 175.0 bu/ac and I have a neutral bias going forward. The U.S. corn production is estimated at 15.10 billion bushels.

Since I had increased the corn yield last week, I decided to leave it unchanged as we see how the weather plays out this week. My bias last week was neutral to higher, but I changed it this week to neutral.

Dry weather prevailed over the weekend with only light showers in northwestern North Dakota. The forecast for this week is calling for a giant "doughnut-hole" in the central U.S. devoid of rain with some rain around the periphery. Temperatures are expected to be extremely hot with record highs possible. This is not a good combination for the corn crop.

The corn crop started last week with enough soil moisture in most of the Corn Belt to withstand a brief period of hot and dry conditions. In the dryer pockets of Iowa, Nebraska, and southern Minnesota, the hot and dry conditions will further erode the corn yield potential.

Hot and dry conditions this week will speed up corn development, especially in the previously dry areas and it could result in additional tip-back where the last few inches of the ear are devoid of kernels. A speeded-up maturation could also result in lighter kernel weights as well.

This type of weather is not good for the corn crop, but the ultimate factor that will determine the impact on the corn will be when the next rain occurs. If the high temperatures are broken by widespread good rains, then the damage to the corn may be minor. If the high temperatures are broken without widespread rains, then that could be a more serious matter.

The condition of the 2023 U.S. corn crop declined 1% and is now rated 58% good/excellent. The 2023 U.S. corn is 78% dough compared to 73% last year and 77% average. The corn is 35% dented compared to 29% last year and 33% average and 4% of the corn is mature compared to 4% last year and 4% average.

The 2023 U.S. corn planted and harvested acreage may increase as much as 500,000 acres before it is all said and done. Farmers may have ended up planting some additional corn and there was probably less prevent plant acreage than anticipated.