Aug 23, 2023

2023 U.S. Soybean Estimate Unchanged at 51.0 bu/ac, 4.21 bb

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

The 2023 U.S. soybean estimate was left unchanged this week at 51.0 bu/ac and I have a neutral bias going forward. The U.S. soybean production is estimated at 4.21 billion bushels.

Since I had increased the soybean yield last week, I decided to leave it unchanged as we see how the weather plays out this week. My bias last week was neutral to higher, but I changed it this week to neutral.

Dry weather prevailed over the weekend with only light showers in northwestern North Dakota. The forecast for this week is calling for a giant "doughnut-hole" in the central U.S. devoid of rain with some rain around the periphery. Temperatures are expected to be extremely hot with record highs possible. This is not a good combination for the soybean crop.

These hot and dry conditions will speed up the soybean development especially in the previously dry locations. Moisture stress could result in abortion of the latest set flowers and pods. It could also result in smaller and lighter seeds, especially in the hotter and dryer locations.

I increased the soybean yield last week and I decided to leave the soybean yield unchanged this week while we wait to see how long the adverse weather will persist. As I mentioned in the corn comments, the ultimate factor that will determine the impact on the soybeans will be when the next rain occurs.

The condition of the 2023 U.S. soybeans was unchanged this week at 59% rated good/excellent. The soybeans are 96% blooming compared to 96% last year and 96% average. The soybeans are 86% setting pods compared to 83% last year and 84% average.

The 2023 U.S. soybean acreage may inch up a couple hundred thousand acres due to less prevent plan than anticipated.