Sep 20, 2023

2023 U.S. Soybean Estimate Unchanged at 49.5 bu/ac

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

The 2023 U.S. soybean yield was left unchanged this week at 49.5 bu/ac and I have a neutral to lower bias going forward. I have adopted the USDA's harvested acreage of 82.79 million acres, which now results in a production of 4.09 billion bushels.

Showers over the weekend favored the central and southwestern areas. The showers were mostly light and scattered with the heaviest amounts in northern Illinois and Texas. The forecast for this week is for showers across the western Corn Belt and generally dry across the eastern Corn Belt.

Above normal temperatures this week across the western Midwest will favor drydown and maturation of the soybean crop. In the dryer areas of Iowa, Minnesota, and Nebraska, the soybeans are ending the growing season with little rainfall for the last month, which may result in smaller and lighter seeds. Iowa and southern Minnesota are of particular concern since the areas has received 25-30% of its normal rainfall over the last 30 days. That is not a good way to end the growing season.

The 2023 U.S. soybean crop is 54% dropping leaves compared to 39% last year and 43% average and the soybeans are 5% harvested compared to 3% last year and 4% average.

In the September Crop Report, the USDA estimated the 2023 U.S. soybean yield at 50.1 bu/ac (down 0.8 bu/ac from August) with a harvested acreage of 82.79 million acres resulting in a production of 4.14 billion bushels. I think they might trim the soybean yield a little more and end up in the range of 49-50 bu/ac.