Oct 10, 2023

2023/24 Brazil Soybeans 10% Planted vs. 9% Average

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

The 2023/24 summer rainy season in Brazil is just getting underway and the soybean planting is off to an average start.

Brazil's 2023/24 soybean crop was 10% planted as of late last week compared to 9.6% last year and 9% average according to AgRural. This represents an advance of 4.9% for the week. The state of Parana continues to lead the way with nearly 30% planted last week with Mato Grosso 14% planted.

Central Brazil received scattered showers last week with temperatures not as hot as the previous week, but they were still above average. The forecast for this week is calling for somewhat less rain in central Brazil with temperatures still hotter-than-normal. Metrologists in Brazil are forecasting below normal rainfall in central Brazil through the month of October.

In contrast, southern Brazil continues to be wet especially the states of Rio Grande do Sul, Santa Catarina, Parana and Sao Paulo. The main concern for the wet conditions in Rio Grande do Sul is the impact on the wheat harvest that is just getting underway. Heavy rainfall at harvest is a reoccurring problem for wheat in southern Brazil. The wet weather can result in lower wheat yields and poor-quality wheat that may be rejected by millers, resulting in lower prices because it would be used as animal rations.

Mato Grosso - The 2023/24 soybeans in Mato Grosso were 14.2% planted as of late last week compared to 18.6% last year and 12.2% average. This represents an advance of 10% for the week. The most advanced planting is in western Mato Grosso where soybeans are 23% planted. This is also the major cotton producing region of the state where cotton producers were given permission to plant their soybeans two weeks earlier than normal.

Rainfall coverage in Mato Grosso has been spotty with some regions receiving adequate rain while other regions remaining dry. The forecast for this week looks dryer than last week.

Below is the soybean planting progress (red line) from the Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (Imea).


Parana - Soybean planting in Parana is approaching 30% as of late last week according to Patria Agronegocios. Planting is most advanced in the western part of the state and slowest in the northern part of the state. This is the fastest soybean planting in Parana in the last five years according to the Department of Rural Economics (Deral).

The weather has been favorable for planting and farmers are hoping it will stay that way with an El Nino that usually results in above normal rainfall during the growing season. The state is expected to produce 16 million tons of soybeans, but farmers are concerned about tight margins due to low soybean prices and the high cost of production.

Goias - Soybean planting in the state is just getting underway with 6% planted. Planting is concentrated in southwestern Goias where the rainfall has been more widespread. In other regions of the state, farmers are waiting for improved soil moisture. The forecast is calling for below normal and irregular rains across the state during the month of October, which is worrisome for farmers.

There has been reports out of the state that farmers will wait to plant until the soil moisture has improved enough to ensure good germination and stand establishment. If that entails planting less safrinha corn due to delayed soybean planting, then that is OK because of current domestic corn prices. At these prices, they certainly do not want to risk low corn yields due to delayed planting.

There have been similar sediments expressed in the dryer regions of Mato Grosso.

Rio Grande do Sul - There have been questions recently if the wet weather in the state may delay the soybean planting. I think it is a little too early to be overly concerned because most of the soybeans in the state are planted after the wheat is harvested and the harvest is just getting underway. Rio Grande do Sul is usually one of the last areas to plant soybeans in Brazil with October/November being the peak planting period. If wet weather persists in the state for several more weeks, then the concern level would increase.