Oct 11, 2023

Brazil 2023/24 Soy 162.0 mt up 4.8%, Corn 119.4 mt Down 9.5%

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

In their first assessment of the 2023/24 crops in Brazil, Conab estimated the Brazilian soybean production at 162.0 million tons, which is up 7.4 million compared to the 154.6 million produced in 2022/23. For corn, Conab estimated the Brazilian production at 119.4 million tons, which is down 12.4 million compared to the 131.8 million produced in 2022/23.

Brazilian farmers are expected to increase their soybean acreage for the 17th year in row. The increase is coming mainly from the conversion of degraded pastures to row crop production and the switching from corn to soybeans. The 2023/24 soybean acreage is estimated at 45.18 million hectares (111.59 million acres), which is up 2.5% or 1.11 million hectares compared to last year. The soybean yield is estimated at 3,586 kg/ha (53.4 bu/ac), which is up 1.1 bu/ac or 2.2% compared to last year.

Brazilian farmers are expected to reduce their corn acreage due to low corn prices and lack of margins. The first corn crop acreage is estimated at 4.14 million hectares (10.22 million acres), down 300,000 hectares. The safrinha corn acreage is estimated at 16.40 million hectares (40.50 million acres), down 1.3 million hectares) and the third corn crop acreage is estimated at 632,000 hectares (1.56 million acres), down 50,000 hectares.

Farmers are also expected to reduce their investment in their 2023/24 corn production, especially for the safrinha corn where the expected yield is estimated at 5,561 kg/ha (88.4 bu/ac), which is down 6.1 bu/ac from last year.

The first corn crop production is estimated at 26.16 million tons or 21.9% of Brazil's total corn production. The safrinha corn crop is estimated at 91.21 million tons or 76.3% of the total corn production and the third crop is estimated at 2.01 million tons or 1.6% of the total.

The Brazilian National Weather Service's (Inmet) forecast for October-November-December is calling for above normal rainfall in southern Brazil, normal or below normal rainfall in central Brazil, and below normal rainfall in northern and northeastern Brazil. Temperatures during the period are expected to be above normal in all of Brazil. This is a classic El Nino weather pattern for Brazil.