Oct 31, 2023
2023/24 Brazil's Safrinha Corn Could be Problematic
Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.
Brazil's safrinha corn production could be disappointing due to lower safrinha corn acreage than originally expected. I know the safrinha corn planting is still two months away, but the factors listed below indicate that Brazilian farmers will be reluctant to plant all their intended safrinha corn acreage.
- Soybean planting is being delayed, which in turn will delay the safrinha corn planting. Additionally, some soybeans will need to be replanted, delaying the safrinha corn even more.
- Domestic corn prices are low, increasing the possibility of losing money on safrinha corn.
- Corn seed sales are very slow, 34% of the needed seed was purchased by the start of October compared to 76% the last three years.
- Farmers in Mato Grosso have purchased 67% of their needed fertilizers compared to 80% last year.
- The price of cover forage seed has doubled in the last two months due to high demand.
- With an El Nino, there is a possibility of an early end to the summer rainy season increasing the risk for late-planted safrinha corn.
If the domestic corn price improves between now and next January/February, the situation could change, but right now, it does not look encouraging for safrinha corn. The safrinha corn crop is responsible for about three-quarters of Brazil's total corn production.
Brazil's first corn crop was 53% planted as of late last week compared to 56% last year according to AgRural. This represents an advance of 10% for the week.
Parana - The first corn crop in Parana was 91% planted as of late last week with 5% germinating, 94% in vegetative development, and 1% pollinating. The corn is rated 2% poor, 11% average, and 87% good according to the Department of Rural Economics (Deral). The crop is developing normally and farmers are reporting a large incidence of corn leafhoppers.
Rio Grande do Sul - Farmers in the state had planted 70% of the 817,500 hectares of corn projected for the state. Most of the corn is either germinating or in vegetative development with 1% pollinating. The corn is rated as generally in good condition.