Nov 10, 2023

Conab Increases Brazil Soy Estimate 0.42 mt to 162.4 Million

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

In their November Crop Report, Conab increased the 2023/24 Brazil soybean production 0.42 million tons to 162.42 million based on increased soybean acreage. The 2023/24 Brazil corn production was lowered 0.34 million tons to 119.06 million due to lower acreage.

Brazil's 2023/24 soybean acreage is now estimated at 45.29 million hectares (111.8 million acres), which is up 110,000 hectares (271,700 acres) from the previous month and Brazil's soybean acreage is now up 2.8% compared to last year. The 2023/24 soybean yield is estimated at 3,586 kg/ha (53.4 bu/ac), which if verified, would be up 2.2% compared to last year. Brazil's 2023/24 soybean production of 162.4 million tons would be up 5.1% compared to last year or an increase of 7.8 million tons.

The soybean planting pace in Brazil has fallen behind average due to hot and dry conditions in east-central and northeastern Brazil. A third wave of extreme temperatures and dry conditions have moved into Brazil, which will probably delay planting even more. Some of the earlier planted soybeans will also have to be replanted.

Brazil's 2023/24 corn production of 119.06 million tons is 0.34 million tons lower than last month. The reduction was the result of a 40,000-hectare (98,800 acre) reduction for the first crop corn acreage to 4.10 million hectares (10.1 million acres). Wet weather and low corn prices resulted in less first crop corn planted in southern Brazil.

Conab will issue their first estimate of the safrinha corn crop based on field observations in the February crop report. Their preliminary estimate of the safrinha corn acreage indicates a 4.5% reduction in acreage to 16.4 million hectares (40.5 million acres). The initial yield estimate is 5,561 kg/ha (88.4 bu/ac), which would be down 6.5% from last year. The concern for the safrinha corn is that it will be planted later than desired due to delayed soybean planting.

Brazil's total corn production is estimated at 119.06 million tons which would be down 9.6% compared to last year or a reduction of 12.6 million tons compared to the 131.7 million tons produced in 2022/23.