Dec 06, 2023

2023/24 Brazil Soybeans 83% Planted, Delays North and South

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

Rainfall last week and over the weekend was fairly widespread with the heaviest amounts in southern Brazil. Rainfall this week is expected to favor much of Brazil except for northeastern Brazil with the heaviest amounts once again in southern Brazil. Rainfall amounts are expected to increase in the 6-10 day and the 11-15 day periods.

Even though the recent weather has improved in Brazil, the rain is coming too late for a full recovery of the earliest planted soybeans in central Brazil. The soybeans planted in September had a good start, but dry conditions and very hot temperatures during October and the first half of November took a toll on the crop. Additionally, there are still soybeans left to plant in far southern Brazil and northeastern Brazil and these late planted soybeans probably will have a lower yield potential.

The 2023/24 Brazilian soybeans were 83.3% planted as of late last week compared to 93.4% last year and 92.5% average according to Patria AgroNegocios. This represents an advance of 8.7% for the week. Scattered showers helped to advance the planting in the central part of the country. It is the extreme northern and southern areas where the planting is delayed the most.

Planting is nearing completion in states such as Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, Parana, Sao Palo, and Goias where the planting is 95-96% complete. Planting is more delayed in the southern states of Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina and the northeastern states of Bahia, Maranhao, Tocantins, and Piaui where planting is averaging 50-60% complete.

Mato Grosso - The Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (Imea) estimates that 4.2% of the state's 12.2 million hectares of soybeans will need to be replanted, but that some of those hectares may not be replanted with soybeans due to additional costs or the desire to plant cotton instead.

In the municipality of Diamantino in west-central Mato Grosso, the soybean crop started out OK in September, but after 30 days without rain, at least 40% of the crop is now rated in poor condition. The president of the Rural Union of Diamantino/MT indicated that any soybeans not planted by this past weekend would probably not be planted at all and instead, be planted to corn in January. He estimates that the safrinha corn acreage in the municipality will decline at least 40% and farmers will plant a cover crop instead.

Parana - The soybeans in Parana are 98% planted and the crop is 3% germinating, 63% in vegetative development, 25% flowering, and 9% filling pods. The soybeans are rated 2% poor, 12% average, and 86% good. The Department of Rural Economics (Deral) lowered their estimate for the state's soybean production to 21.7 million tons compared to 21.9 million in October. If verified, this would represent a 3% reduction compared to last year's record production.

Goias - Farmers in Goias have planted 91% of their soybeans compared to 97% average. After a slow start, they have managed to basically catch up over the last several weeks.

Rio Grande do Sul - Wet weather continues to delay the soybean planting which was 50% complete as of late last week compared to 70% last year and 75% average. Farmers are reporting higher levels of damping off disease, which will require replanting and they are concerned that the late planted soybeans will have lower yield potential.

Bahia - Dry weather continues to slow the soybean planting which was 62% complete last week compared to 85% average. The longer-range forecast is only calling for scattered showers in western Bahia.

Tocantins - Soybeans are 68% planted compared to 85% average. The planting should be wrapping up by now, but some producers are just now starting to plant. The earliest planted soybeans were impacted the most by the dry weather resulting in poor plant populations. The later planted soybeans are doing better due to recent rainfall. Farmers are expected to plant less safrinha corn with lower levels of technology due to the delayed soybean planting.