Dec 18, 2023

Brazil's Abiove Has Capacity to Meet Potential Biodiesel Demand

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

The Brazilian Association of Vegetable Oil Processors (Abiove) estimated that Brazil will export 100.2 million tons of soybeans in 2024 which is up 200,000 tons from their November estimate, but it is down slightly from the 100.5 million estimated for 2023. They are estimating that Brazil will produce 161.9 million tons of soybeans in 2023/24, which is down 2.8 million from their November estimate.

Soybean crushing in Brazil in 2024 is estimated at 54.5 million tons, which is up 500,000 from November and up 900,000 from 2023. The increased crush is in anticipation of an increase in biodiesel blend from the current 12% vegetable oil (B12) to a 13% blend (B13) in April of 2024. Soybean oil accounts for approximately 70% of the vegetable oil used in Brazil's biodiesel.

Abiove is advocating for a higher blend percentage and they indicate that the sector would be more than capable of meeting a higher blend. The soybean crush capacity in Brazil is estimated at 69 million tons or 15 million tons more than what is projected for 2024. Abiove is proposing a B20 blend for large urban areas of Brazil.

The crush sector expanded several years ago in anticipation of a much higher blend, but disruptions from the Covin-19 pandemic forestalled the increase. In fact, President Bolsonaro reduced the bend percentage several years ago in an effort to lower diesel prices and win votes from truckers during his reelection campaign.