Jan 11, 2024

Conab Lowers Brazil Soybeans 4.9 mt, Corn Lowered 0.92 mt

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

In their January Crop Report, Conab lowered the 2023/24 Brazil soybean estimate 4.91 million tons to 155.26 million. The Brazil corn estimate was lowered 0.92 million tons to 117.6 million.

The Brazil soybean estimate was lowered due to reduced acreage and lower yields. The 2023/24 soybean acreage is now estimated at 45.25 million hectares (111.7 million acres), which is down 50,000 hectares from the prior month. Hot and dry weather in central Brazil during October and November caused some fields to be abandoned and subsequently switched to other crops such as safrinha cotton or corn. Even with the reduction, the soybean acreage is still up 2.7% from last year.

Hot and dry weather also negatively impacted the potential soybean yield now estimated at 3,431 kg/ha (51.1 bu/ac), which is down 1.5 bu/ac from last month and down 2.2% from last year. The soybean production is now estimated at 155.26 million tons, which is down 4.91 million from last month, but still up 0.4% from last year's production of 154.6 million tons. Conab's January estimate is significantly higher than many private estimates.

Brazil's 2023/24 corn estimate was lowered 0.92 million tons from last month to 117.6 million. The lower estimate was due to lower acreage and lower yields of Brazil's first corn crop. The first corn crop acreage was lowered 70,000 hectares to 3.96 million hectares (9.78 million acres). The yield of the first corn crop is now estimated at 6,144 kg/ha (97.6 bu/ac) which is down 2.1 bu/ac from last month. The first corn crop production is estimated at 24.38 million tons.

Estimates for the safrinha corn production were left unchanged from last month, which is Conab's standard practice for the January Crop Report. Conab will issue their first estimate of the safrinha corn crop based on field observations in their February Crop Report. The safrinha corn crop is estimated at 91.23 million tons.

The production estimate for the third corn crop was left unchanged from last month at 1.98 million tons.

Brazil's first corn crop now represents 20.7% of the total corn production with the safrinha corn representing 77.5% of the total and the third corn crop representing 1.6% of the total.