Feb 13, 2024
2023/24 Argentina Soy Estimate Trimmed by Hot and Dry Weather
Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.
Weather last week in Argentina was generally hot and dry except for parts of Buenos Aires and La Pampa. Moisture stress was reported in many areas due to the extreme temperatures. Soybeans in Argentina are approximately 70% flowering and 40% filling pods with reports of flowers and pods being aborted in the hardest hit areas. The forecast for this week is for temperatures still above normal, but not as hot as last week and improved chances of rainfall across most of Argentina.
Last week was very difficult for the soybeans in the core production areas. The extreme temperatures over a ten-day period resulted in the loss of three inches of moisture due to the high rate of evapotranspiration. The adverse weather over the last few weeks in Argentina has trimmed the soybean yields in the core production areas by probably 10-20% or more.
As you can see in the pictures below, some soybean fields in Argentina are doing fine and some are suffering significant yield losses. Therefore, the 2023/24 Argentina soybean estimate was lowered 2.0 million tons. If the rainfall forecasted for this week materializes, it would help to stabilize the crop, but I think some damage has already occurred.
In the February WASDE Report, the USDA left the 2023/24 Argentina soybean estimate unchanged at 50.0 million tons. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange is estimating the soybean crop at 52.5 million tons.
The soybeans in Argentina were rated 22% poor/very poor, 47% fair, and 31% good/excellent as of late last week. The poor/excellent percentage is down 5% from the previous week. The soil moisture for the soybeans was rated 40% short/very short and 60% favorable/optimum. The favorable/optimum percentage is down 17% from last week.
2022/23 Argentina Soybean Ratings*
| Condition | Soil Moisture | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poor/V. Poor % | Good/Excellent % | Short/V Short | Favorable/Optimum | |
| Jan. 3, 2024 | 2 (40) | 42 (7) | 9 (46) | 90 (54) |
| Jan. 10, 2024 | 3 (58) | 51 (4) | 6 (67) | 92 (33) |
| Jan. 17, 2024 | 2 (56) | 55 (4) | 7 (69) | 90 (31) |
| Jan. 24, 2024 | 8 (53) | 44 (7) | 9 (64) | 90 (36) |
| Jan. 31, 2024 | 14 (52) | 36 (14) | 23 (51) | 77 (49) |
| Feb. 7, 2024 | 22 (44) | 31 (16) | 40 (61) | 60 (39) |
*Source: Buenos Aires Grain Exchange – Crop Condition & Development Stages
The pictures below are from the February 7, 2024 Buenos Aires Grain Report.
Early planted soybeans in Juarez Celman, Cordoba, Feb. 2, photo curtsey of B.A. Grain Exchange.
