Feb 29, 2024
Early Look at 2024 U.S. Corn and Soybean Production
Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.
The estimates below could change when the March Prospective Planting report is released at the end of March, but for now, this is my early thinking for the 2024 U.S. growing season.
Corn acreage - In their 2024 Outlook Meeting, the USDA estimated that U.S. farmers would plant 91.0 million acres of corn in 2024, which is down 3.6 million from the 94.6 million planted in 2023. The average nationwide yield in 2024 is estimated at 181.0 bu/ac with a total production of 15.04 billion bushels.
The acreage mix in the U.S. is generally a function of price and weather. If one crop has a price advantage, farmers tend to increase the acreage. Additionally, an early spring or a delayed spring could also impact the acreage.
As far as prices are concerned, FarmDoc Daily estimates that the break-even corn price in central Illinois for non-land costs is $3.58 per bushel. The break-even price in central Illinois for non-land + cash rent is $5.18 per bushel. The USDA projects an average corn price in 2024 of $4.40 per bushel, so clearly, there is no big price incentive to plant corn. U.S. farmers produce approximately 45% of their crop on their own land and 55% on rented land.
As far as the weather is concerned, it certainly looks like it is going to be an early spring, at least at this point. Temperatures are very warm for this time of the year and there is no big snowpack to melt in northern plains, at least not yet (fingers crossed). Therefore, I feel that farmers may end up planting a little more than the 91 million acres projected, but I have a low level of confidence in that estimate.
Corn yield - I think the USDA"s initial yield estimate of 181.0 bu/ac is overly optimistic, which has generally been the case in recent years, especially given the fact that the record corn yield is 177.3 bu/ac. The USDA's yield estimate would break the record by 3.7 bu/ac. That yield is possible of course, but to achieve that yield, there would need to be an early planting and ideal weather during the entire growing season. I think a more reasonable starting yield estimate would be 179-180 bu/ac, but even that would require beneficial weather throughout the entire growing season.
2024 U.S. Corn Production - To start the 2024 U.S. growing season, I am going to use a corn planted acreage of 92.0 million acres with a harvested acreage of 83.9 million (91.3% of planted). Using a yield of 179 to 180 bu/ac, the 2024 U.S. production is estimated at 15.01 to 15.10 billion bushels.
Soybean acreage - The 2024 Outlook Meeting estimated that U.S. farmers would plant 87.5 million acres of soybeans in 2024 which is up 3.9 million from the 83.6 million planted last year. The average nationwide soybean yield is estimated at 52.0 bu/ac with a total production of 4.475 billion bushels.
FarmDoc Daily estimates that the break-even soybean price in central Illinois for non-land costs is $7.16 per bushel. The break-even price in central Illinois for non-land + cash rent is $12.22 per bushel. The USDA projects an average soybean price in 2024 of $11.20 per bushel, so clearly, there is no big price incentive to plant soybeans either.
The soybean acreage in 2024 will be determined by the price and the weather. The current price forecast is basically neutral, not favoring one crop over the other. The trend in recent years has been to increase the amount of soybeans planted early, so if we do end up with an early spring, farmers may end up planting a little more soybeans than anticipated.
An additional consideration for soybeans is the amount of double crop soybeans that will be planted after wheat harvest. If the soft red winter wheat area and/or the hard red winter wheat area are suffering from dry weather in June and July, farmers may be more reluctant to plant double crop soybeans especially if prices remain low. If the soil moisture is adequate for planting, farmers might still be reluctant to plant double crop soybeans especially on rented land due to the low price. Bottom line - we will not have a firm idea about acreage until the June Planted Report.
Soybean yield - Unlike corn, I do not object to starting the season with a 52.0 bushel per acre yield. If the weather cooperates in July and August, that yield is achievable. Therefore, I will start my 2024 U.S. soybean estimate using a yield of 52.0 bu/ac.
2024 U.S. Soybean Production - To start the 2024 U.S. growing season, I am going to use the acreage and yield estimates from the USDA. The soybean planted acreage is 87.5 million acres with a harvested acreage of 86.6 million (98.9% of planted). Using a yield of 52.0 bu/ac, the 2024 U.S. soybean production is estimated at 4.505 billion bushels.