Mar 13, 2024

2023/24 Brazil Safrinha Corn 93% Planted

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

The 2023/24 safrinha corn was 93% planted as of late last week compared to 82% last year according to AgRural. This represents an advance of 7% for the week and this week will essentially be the last week for safrinha planting.

Dryness is starting to be a concern in south-central Brazil including the states of Parana, Mato Grosso do Sul, Sao Paulo, southern Goias, and southeastern Mato Grosso. Rainfall in the region has been 40% to 80% below average for the last 2-3 weeks. Rain over the weekend did benefit parts of Mato Grosso do Sul and Goias.

The concern now is a heat dome that is forecasted for this week in northern Argentina, Paraguay, and parts of south-central Brazil. This is the third heat wave of the season with temperatures forecasted to be at least 5°C above average. If the forecast verifies, soil moisture could quickly be depleted for the safrinha corn that is in early vegetative development.

Brazil's 2023/24 corn estimate was left unchanged this week at 112.0 million tons with a neutral to lower bias. Conab will release their March Crop Report on Tuesday, March 12. In their February report, they estimated the crop at 113.69 million tons. In the March WASDE Report released last week, the USDA left the Brazil corn estimate unchanged at 124.0 million tons.

Mato Grosso - The safrinha corn in Mato Grosso was 97.8% planted as of late last week compared to 96.4% last year and 95.9% average. This represents an advance of 7.7% for the week. The safrinha corn in central and northern Mato Grosso was planted about a week earlier than normal and the crop is developing normally with the most advanced corn approaching pollination. In southeastern Mato Grosso, the corn was planted later and is in vegetative development. Rainfall has been more sporadic in southeastern Mato Grosso.

The Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (Imea) left their estimate of the state's corn production unchanged this month at 43.28 million tons, which is down 17.5% compared to last year. For the 2024/25 growing season, Imea estimates that farmers in the state would need to harvest 103.8 sacks per hectare (99 bu/ac) to break even with a corn price of R$ 46.90 per sack (approximately $4.30 per bushel). The current price of corn in Mato Grosso is below R$ 40.00 per sack (approximately $3.70 per bushel).

Below is the safrinha corn planting progress in Mato Grosso from the Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (Imea). Generally, the safrinha corn planting in Mato Grosso this year was approximately a week ahead of average.


Parana - The safrinha corn in Parana is more than 80% planted with adequate soil moisture in southern Parana, but dryer conditions in northern Parana.

Rio Grande do Sul - Farmers in the state have harvested 70% of their 2023/24 corn with 5% in vegetative development, 4% pollinating, 10% filling grain, and 11% maturing. According to Emater, farmers in the state reduced their corn acreage by 1.27% to 812,795 hectares. Some acreage was lost or switched to other crops due to excessive moisture during the early planting. Emater estimates that the state will produce 5.2 million tons of corn, which is down from their initial estimate of 6 million tons.

Goias - The safrinha corn planting in the state is nearing 80% complete. The safrinha corn acreage is expected to be down 10% to 12% according to the Agricultural and Livestock Federation of Goias (Faeg). Instead of corn, some farmers may plant sunflowers, grain sorghum, or sesame.

In the municipality of Jatai in southwestern Goias, farmers are expected to reduce their safrinha corn acreage by 5% to 10%. The corn is in vegetative development and farmers are reporting heavy pest pressure from corn leafhoppers and weevils.