Apr 10, 2024

2023/24 Brazil Soybeans 79% Harvested

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

There is a wide range of estimates for the 2023/24 Brazilian soybean production based on differences in planted acreage and yield. Both Conab and WASDE will release their April Crop Reports on Thursday, April 11th and the acreage will be closely watched. My estimate is 145.0 million tons, but there are estimates as high as 155.0 to 156.0 million tons. The final estimate may end up someplace in between those estimates but let's wait and see what the agencies report on Thursday.

Rainfall last week in Brazil once again favored the northern areas of Brazil with less rainfall in the south-central areas. Weekend rain favored southwestern Parana, western Santa Catarina, and Rio Grande do Sul. Wetter weather is expected across southern Brazil over the next 10 days which would primarily benefit the southern safrinha corn.

Soybeans in Brazil were 79.3% harvested as of late last week compared to 81.8% last year and 83.7% average according to Patria AgroNegocios This represents an advance of 5.7% for the week. Patria AgroNegocios reported that recent yields are lower than average due to late planting and high insect and disease pressures. The last areas to be harvested will be the state of Rio Grande do Sul in southern Brazil and the states in northeastern Brazil.

Mato Grosso - With the soybean harvest essentially complete in the state, the Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (Imea) is estimating that the soybean acreage in the state increased 0.08% in 2023/24 to 12.13 million hectares (29.96 million acres). The statewide soybean yield is estimated at 52.85 sacks per hectare (47.2 bu/ac), which is down 15.1% from 2022/23.

Rio Grande do Sul - Soybeans in the state were 20% harvested as of late last week according to Emater. Dryer weather allowed farmers to make good harvest progress. Emater indicated that the yields are variable, but the later maturing soybeans are better than originally anticipated. Emater is now estimating the statewide soybean yield at 3,329 kg/ha (49.6 bu/ac).

Northeastern Brazil - In northeastern Brazil, above normal rainfall has slowed the soybean harvest with the excess moisture causing some localized problems of poor seed quality.