Apr 12, 2024

Conab Soy 146.52 mt Down 0.33 mt, Corn 110.96 mt Down 1.79 mt

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

In their April Crop Report, Conab lowered the 2023/24 Brazil soybean estimate 0.33 million tons to 146.52 million. For corn, Conab lowered the 2023/24 Brazil estimate 1.79 million tons to 110.96 million.

Conab is now estimating the 2023/24 soybean acreage at 45.23 million hectares (111.7 million acres) which is up 65,000 hectares from the March estimate and up 2.6% year-on-year. The soybean yield is now estimated at 3,239 kg/ha (48.2 bu/ac), which is down 0.2 bu/ac from the March report and down 7.7% from last year. Brazil's 2023/24 soybean production is now estimated at 146.52 million tons, which is down 8.0 million tons or 5.2% year-on-year.

Brazil's 2023/24 corn production was lowered 1.79 million tons from the March estimate due to almost entirely a lower safrinha corn production. The safrinha acreage was increased 26,000 hectares to 15.77 million hectares (38.95 million acres), but it is still down 8.2% compared to last year.

The substantial change for the safrinha crop was the yield, which is now estimated at 5,427 kg/ha (86.2 bu/ac), down 1.9 bu/ac from the March report and down 8.9% year-on-year. The 2023/24 safrinha corn production is estimated at 85.61 million tons, which is down 1.7 million tons from March and down 16.75 million tons from the 102.36 million produced in 2023/24. This represents a decline of 16.4% year-on-year.

Lower soybean yields are attributed to adverse weather especially during October and November. Lower corn production is attributed to reduced acreage and lower yields. Many Brazilian farmers reduced their safrinha corn acreage due to delayed soybean planting/harvesting and low corn prices. Some farmers switched their intended safrinha corn acreage to cotton, grain sorghum, millet, sesame, or a grass cover crop.

Brazil's first corn crop at 23.35 million tons represents 21% of Brazil's total corn production, the safrinha crop at 85.61 million tons represents 77.1%, and the third crop at 1.99 million tons represents 1.7% of the total.