May 14, 2024
2023/24 Argentina Soy 48% Harvested, Potential Frost Problem
Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.
Rainfall last week favored the central and eastern areas and the forecast is calling for rain this week in northeastern Argentina. The forecast is also calling for the potential of frost in the mountainous areas of the west and localized frosts in much of the central and southern agricultural areas. Even if it is not a killing frost, it could still impact some of the late planted soybeans.
The 2023/24 soybean estimate was lowered 1.0 million tons this week to 50.0 million tons with the possibility it might move a little lower due to disappointing yields in far northern and far southern Argentina and the potential for frost impacting some of the later developing soybeans.
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange left the 2023/24 Argentina soybean estimate unchanged at 51.0 million tons. The Rosario Exchange is estimating the soybean crop at 50.0 million tons. In the May WASDE Report, the USDA left the 2023/24 Argentina soybean estimate unchanged at 50.0 million tons.
Soybean yields are averaging 3,210 kg/ha (47.8 bu/ac), which is down 0.9 bu/ac from the prior week. Yields range from a high of 3,870 kg/ha (57.6 bu/ac) in the northern core region to a low of 1,410 kg/ha (21.0 bu/ac) in northern Argentina. The lower soybean yields are coming from areas in northern and southern Argentina that encountered periods of dry weather during pod filling.
Soybeans in Argentina were 47.8% harvested as of late last week compared to 60.8% average. This represented an advance of 11.5% for the week. In the core production areas, the soybeans were 55-80% harvested with 20-40% harvested in southern Argentina and 20% harvested in far northern Argentina.
The soybeans in Argentina were rated 26% poor/very poor, 37% fair, and 27% good/excellent as of late last week. The good/excellent percentage was down 2% compared to the prior week. The soil moisture for the corn was rated 14% short/very short, 84% favorable/optimum, and 2% saturated. The favorable/optimum percentage is up 2% compared to the prior week. Below is the soybean rating in Argentina for May 8, 2024 from the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange.
2022/23 Argentina Soybean Ratings*
| Condition | Soil Moisture | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poor/V. Poor % | Good/Excellent % | Short/V Short | Favorable/Optimum | |
| Mar. 13, 2024 | 16 (75) | 30 (2) | 23 (70) | 77 (30) |
| Mar. 21, 2024 | 16 (72) | 31 (2) | 21 (65) | 78 (35) |
| Mar. 27, 2024 | 21 (74) | 29 (2) | 26 (52) | 74 (48) |
| Apr. 4, 2024 | 21 (66) | 30 (3) | 28 (53) | 71 (47) |
| Apr. 11, 2024 | 22 (65) | 31 (3) | 27 (55) | 72 (45) |
| Apr. 17, 2024 | 22 (63) | 30 (4) | 20 (50) | 78 (50) |
| May 1, 2024 | 25 (57) | 29 (4) | 12 (47) | 84 (53) |
| May 8, 2024 | 26 (51) | 27 (5) | 14 (43) | 84 (57) |
*Source: Buenos Aires Grain Exchange – Crop Condition & Development Stages